By Agung Cahaya Sumirat, Rudjimin and Rully F. Sukarno (Sesparlu 54 Group Blog)
The terrorist attacks on Charlie Hebdo magazine in January 2015, which was followed by more brutal, concerted attack in Paris in November 2015 have shocked France and Europe. There is a sense of urgency of how such attacks need to be addressed. The latter attack marked a departure from previous terror tactics in France, confirming the French intelligence community’s worst fear as the country experienced – a systematic, coordinated attack, first seen in Mumbai in 2008. Reports that attackers spoke unaccented French, and carrying Syrian and Egyptian passport, including the one registered in October 2015 at a refugee centre in the Greek Island of Leros, indicated that the ISIS threat to bring the war at the doorstep of Europe and France has materialized.
The terrorist attacks in Paris broadened the scope of the French Government policy strategy in fighting global terrorism particularly the Islamic States of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The two cases of terrorisms in France have clearly revealed the alarming and dangerous existence of ISIS terrorist network in Europe. ISIS has claimed responsibility and stated that those terrorist attacks were retaliation of the French military air strikes towards several ISIS basis in Syria and Iraq.
Against this backdrop, this situation certainly requires strategic response of the French Government as this “war on terror” will apparently continue. This article wishes to highlight the French Government current efforts in fighting terrorism and offers possible policy recommendation.
Trends
Since the beginning of “Arab spring’ in Syria, President Francois Hollande’s strategy was to throw his support to the opposition group in Syria and recognising the opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC) as representative of the Syrian people. France firmly insisted the removal from power of Syrian President Bashar Assad. However, as the Syrian conflicts grew worse, the SNC opposition found limited supports and was increasingly marginalised by the growing presence of the ISIS. French campaign for Assad’s removal from power have accordingly suffered setbacks.
After the alleged chemical weapons attack by the Syrian regime in 2013, which was called as “crossing the red lines”, French responded by carrying out several air strike against the Syrian regime and ISIS in 2014. The aim was to provide supports towards the strengthening of the opposition coalition. This was carried out despite the UK and the US’s hesitance in supporting military action to Syria. France was left to its own devices by the two allied countries.
France’s stance against ISIS reflected the French hard line approach, which known as the European Union’s (EU) forward line of defense against extremism. Apart from opening the front with ISIS, France has been involved in several military efforts against terrorists groups in Iraq and Mali as well as conducted stabilization operations in the Central African Republic.
After the Paris attack, France has taken up measures in strengthening EU cooperation in its fight against terrorism, especially invoking an EU collective defense clause. The French considers that ISIS as a threat to all of European countries. The Paris attacks were executed through a collaborative network of terrorist cells in several EU countries, notably Belgium. France has strongly demanded measures to secure Europe’s external borders, share passenger data, and institute equitable burden-sharing in other arenas to counter the threat. Nevertheless, the French proposal on Passenger name Record System was denied by Brussel.
On a different front, France is also facing another dimension of terrorism threat emerging from its own borders or the so called “homegrown” terrorism. With an increasing immigrant problem at their hands, France has engaged in on-going discussion on how to best integrate the young immigrant population to France’s society without alienating them. There has been serious concerns for many years of how young immigrants felt increasingly marginalised. Such vulnerability opens a window of opportunity for the recruitment and expansion of ISIS terrorist network.
Options
Considering such developments, the French government are faced with difficult options of how to fight terrorism without nurturing new breed of terrorist. First, the French Government needs to provide more focus on internal terrorist threats and Second, build stronger alliance with other countries, especially the EU to deal with ISIS in Syria and Irag.
A majority of the terrorists involved in the Paris attack were born and raised in France. France is estimated to have 2000 citizens involved in Syria and Iraq terrorist network and a further 3800 individuals is indicated by the domestic intelligence service as “radicalized’. Therefore, French Government need to first deal with the seeds of terrorism domestically. President Hollande devoted most of his parliamentary address to homeland security measures and the need for national unity in the current circumstances. Right after the Paris attack, President Francois Hollande imposed a “State of Emergency” which allow the French police to conduct raid of homes, business, associations and places of worship without judicial review. The police can place people under house arrest even if they do not have sufficient evidence of wrongdoings to detain or charge them. Beyond the emergency power, the French Government pushed through an expansion of surveillance law and right now in the process of lobbying for a constitutional changes, including provisions that would allow some convicted terrorist to be stripped of their citizenship. The state of emergency has outweighed the French policy for migrant integration to France society.
Critics of the new emergency power mentioned of the human cost of such warrantless searches. Less than 1 percent of the raids resulted in new terrorism investigations. Many people whose homes have been searched complained that their privacy was invaded, their families frightened and their property damaged. Additionally, it paints the French government as anti-Muslim.
Disaffected Muslim population at home, unpoliced European borders in which foreign fighters in Syria from France can easily slipped from the watch of French authorities. This renders the emergency law ineffective.
Another option is that the French Government needs to be more proactive in building international coalition in fighting the ISIS. Immediately after the Paris Attack, French aircraft unleashed a heavy bombardment of Raqqa, the city of Syria which serves as ISIS ‘unofficial capital” to remind everyone that France is capable of striking back and that the terrorist who masterminded the Paris attack cannot retreat to their safe hideouts in Syria.
This foreign policy reaction fits within the traditional French paradigm: namely, active diplomacy with traditional partners and the UN, a lean but muscular military capability, a will to fight, and a dedication to French and European security. President Hollande’s stated goal is the creation of a large international coalition against Daesh, including Moscow. The leaders of the US, Britain, Germany, and Russia have extended their support.
In practical terms, the French bombardment makes not much strategic difference. Over the past year, a 10-nation coalition led by the US has conducted at least 3000 air strikes against targets in Syria. Yet none of this can destroy ISIS completely, unless some countries are prepared to put troops on the ground with the objectives of occupying territory and preventing the terrorist organization from regrouping. The chance of that happening is completely nil, as the US is the only power capable of sustaining such an operation and President Barrack Obama has ruled it out. Another option for France is cooperating with Assad Government to crash ISIS. This however, would signify a radical shift in their policy
.Recommendation
Having considered the two options, it is advisable to combine the two option with additional adjustment in each of them. The French Government should focus in dealing with the homegrown terrorism by imposing rules of law taking into account the rights of people, including the French-Muslim, accompanied by strengthening program to integrate the migrant into the French society. The French Government should also strengthen its cooperation with other countries to deal with ISIS in Syria. In this regards, French seems to have to change its policy towards the Syrian government. The French can cooperate with the Syrian to attach the targets vis-a-vis ISIS in Syria and Irag, instead of focusing its efforts to topple down President Assad.
In conclusion, in dealing with the threat of terrorism, it is advisable that France adjust its policy, either domestic or foreign in dealing with ISIS. The French should start to work with its people, including the French Muslim to address the homegrown terrorism and cooperate with the Assad Government in dealing with ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Jakarta, 2 May 2016
AGUNG CAHAYA SUMIRAT 